[olduser]

Found on the BBC News;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c23p028p200o

Are we witnessing the end or can it be turned round?

Electric motors have only one moving component, on ball or tapered roller bearings, I notice some gear boxes are using deep grove ball bearings rather than tapered roller bearings, so they could be a possible failure. Batteries are getting better and there looks to be better ones in development. Adding up to no need to change cars as often, though since the Japanese taught the world how to produce engines, engines live longer anyway. To me that all adds up to fewer cars will be needed in the future.

Any thoughts?

[Rolebama]

I don't think we are anywhere near the end of the road for motor vehicles. Cuba is one of the benchmarks I use as reference for cars, and Russia, the more rural areas, for motorcycles.

[olduser]

I read that Russia was trying to get into the production of EV's before they invaded Ukraine but the sanctions have slowed that down.
Cuba, I think of them as keeping cars going, some from 1950, rather than building new cars.
For serious production, first you need a consistent electricity supply.

But at the moment with Trump around I think everyone from manufacturers to consumers are waiting to see what happens next. As things stand at the moment, cold and hot climates have problems with the present EV batteries, short life if hot, and low capacity, difficult to charge, and low power if cold. Perhaps cold can be managed by heating (at the expense of mileage) but cooling batteries is more of a problem in hot climates.

[Santa]

I think that fewer and fewer people will want their own cars in future. Public and shared transport (taxis) will be improved to the point that owning a car will be uneconomical, and there will be more and more restrictions on private car use.

[Beelzebub]

Originally Posted by Santa

I think that fewer and fewer people will want their own cars in future. Public and shared transport (taxis) will be improved to the point that owning a car will be uneconomical, and there will be more and more restrictions on private car use.

People have been saying that for decades, but there is no sign of it happening.

Outside London and some other cities, bus services seem to be in terminal decline. While there have been some improvements in rail services , there are also areas where the poor quality of service is seldom out of the news.

[NMNeil]

Originally Posted by Beelzebub

People have been saying that for decades, but there is no sign of it happening.

Outside London and some other cities, bus services seem to be in terminal decline. While there have been some improvements in rail services , there are also areas where the poor quality of service is seldom out of the news.

I've been gone from London for nearly 30 years and in that time you have built a tram network in Croydon, built miles of dedicated and protected cycle lanes and there are more bus only lanes than ever before.
I'm also seeing the cost of driving, not just monetary in the form of insurance premiums and taxation, but regulations that keep getting more Draconian. Then there's parking, or rather the drive to get rid of it as they are tearing up car parks to build housing, some of which is designated as car free.
Add to this the push for a total ban on pavement parking across the UK meaning only those who have a place to park will realistically be able to own a car in the future.

[NMNeil]

Originally Posted by olduser

As things stand at the moment, cold and hot climates have problems with the present EV batteries, short life if hot, and low capacity, difficult to charge, and low power if cold. Perhaps cold can be managed by heating (at the expense of mileage) but cooling batteries is more of a problem in hot climates.

Heat does shorten a battery lifespan but you can charge them anywhere between 0 and 45C, so doesn't need that much heat for charging, plus you are filling the battery from a power source anyway so a little of the charging power diverted to heat the batteries isn't a problem, and discharging is safe between -20 and +60C
https://www.ineltro.ch/media/downloa...c654d92915.pdf
That's for Lithium Ion and LiFePo4 is exactly the same.
https://www.batteryspace.com/prod-specs/9055.pdf
Of course we read almost every day about the latest groundbreaking new battery chemistry, but it's difficult to differentiate between truth and hype.
https://vocal.media/wheel/elon-musk-...inute-charging

[olduser]

Interesting information there NMNiel, thank you.

The tesla battery sounds like progress, getting away from Lithium is a game changer.

The Lithium data sheet overlooks the need for compact packing of cells, with no air space between cells.

High charging rates are fine but the electricity infrastructure will need to be in place to support the high charging rate.

[olduser]

Originally Posted by Beelzebub

People have been saying that for decades, but there is no sign of it happening.

Outside London and some other cities, bus services seem to be in terminal decline. While there have been some improvements in rail services , there are also areas where the poor quality of service is seldom out of the news.

Cars will persist because they are grown up's toys, and there is the 'look at at me I am in charge' (well, some of the time) element, and it has a horn to shout with plus light to shoot 'em up with .
A car is big, so the world cant miss it, everyone knows we had the credit rating to get one.
The car also fits in with todays thinking - plan nothing, do everything on impulse, above all do it NOW.
In the face of that, other forms of transport have a tough time to compete, if a bus is a few minuets late that proves how unsuitable they are but we are happy to be only a quarter of an hour late in the car due to congestion?
I cant help but think of Toad of Toad Hall.

[NMNeil]

Originally Posted by olduser

Interesting information there NMNiel, thank you.

The tesla battery sounds like progress, getting away from Lithium is a game changer.

The Lithium data sheet overlooks the need for compact packing of cells, with no air space between cells.

High charging rates are fine but the electricity infrastructure will need to be in place to support the high charging rate.

Not sure how you compact Tesla cells in their battery banks so there is no space between them😏
https://www.batterydesign.net/tesla-4680-cell/
Compressing the blade type cells is recommended to extend their lifespan, but in reality it doesn't make much difference.
I have 2 battery banks with the cells compressed and 5 without. The last time I took them apart to do capacity check there was no difference. I'll try again in another 5 years and let you know if it's changed😎

[olduser]

Thanks for the data, I think we are slightly at cross purposes.

Tesla were using round cells stacked into a outer box to makeup a battery, I think when packing cylinders the best that can be done leaves about 40% (I am too lazy to do the maths just now) unused volume, which allows cooling/heating air to be forced through the spaces.

Flat cells give a higher packing density (more power per cubic centimetre) but it is much more difficult to heat or cool. The outside of the battery box has to be cooled or cooling pipes might be built in as the battery is manufactured arranged for liquid cooling.

[NMNeil]

Tesla use liquid cooling
https://service.tesla.com/docs/Publi...2.5/do/46.html

[olduser]

Thanks for the info, I am well out of date.

I did notice in an article I read, Tesla direct all the waste heat to the heat pump if the cars heater is turned on thus reducing the battery drain, I bet that makes diagnostics interesting!