[NMNeil]

December 30th and I'm in my back yard wearing a T shirt and shorts drinking cold beer with butterfly's everywhere.
It's 84F (29C)
Never experienced anything like it in the 20 odd years I've lived here.
Maybe there is something to this global warming argument.

[Drivingforfun]

You might be right

Didn’t you have biblical rain not too long ago…?

It’s definitely a diverse country in terms of weather by the sounds of it…I have family in New Jersey and they regularly report several feet of snow

[Rolebama]

Our hot/cold climate changes seem to cycle every 70/80yrs. As a planet, Earth wobbles on its axis approx 17degrees, and follow an eccentric orbit around the Sun. This, to me, accounts for all of it. When we finally stabilize in both the axis and orbit, then we should see a fixed weather pattern. At that time it is unknown as to whether it could be too hot or too cold to sustain life as we know it. Personally I don't expect to be around when this happens, unless the reincarnation theories turn out to be true. 😏

[olduser]

As I understand the data, the man made element of the present warming is superimposed on top of any natural warming.
The natural warming is thought to be less than 10% of the warming, and the man made (in the 20th century) 90 - 95%. this being from 1 - 1.1 degrees centigrade per year.
This increase is significant as it tends to have positive feedback, as the atmosphere warms it encourages more warming.

"The Earth's rotation is affected by several cyclical movements, two of which are axial precession (the wobble of Earth’s axis) and obliquity (the tilt of Earth’s axis). These natural variations occur over long timescales (tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of years) and are part of a phenomenon known as Milankovitch cycles, which impact the distribution of solar energy received by the Earth and contribute to long-term climatic changes, such as ice ages and warm periods.

1. Axial Precession: This occurs over a cycle of about 26,000 years. It affects the orientation of Earth's axis relative to its orbit, altering seasonal contrasts and the distribution of solar radiation between the hemispheres. 2. Obliquity: The tilt of Earth's axis changes with a cycle of about 41,000 years, influencing the severity of seasons. When the tilt increases, summers are warmer and winters are colder, enhancing seasonal contrasts."

"Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are atmospheric gases that trap heat and contribute to global warming by enhancing the greenhouse effect. Key GHGs include:

1. **Carbon Dioxide (CO₂)**: Mainly produced from burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrial processes, CO₂ is the most significant human-released greenhouse gas with a long atmospheric lifetime.

2. **Methane (CH₄)**: Emitted from agricultural activities, landfills, and natural gas production, methane is much more potent than CO₂, with a global warming potential (GWP) about 25 times greater, but it has a shorter atmospheric lifetime.

3. **Nitrous Oxide (N₂O)**: Released from agricultural practices and fossil fuel combustion, N₂O has a GWP approximately 298 times that of CO₂ and contributes to ozone depletion.

4. **Fluorinated Gases**: This group includes synthetic gases like HFCs and SF₆ used in industrial applications. They have extremely high GWPs but exist in smaller quantities and can persist for long periods.

Additional considerations include water vapor, the most abundant greenhouse gas influenced by temperature, and ground-level ozone, a potent greenhouse gas created from pollution reactions.

The rise in GHG concentrations due to human activities has intensified the greenhouse effect, causing significant climate changes, such as rising temperatures and sea levels. To combat global warming, substantial reductions in GHG emissions across various sectors are needed, alongside efforts to transition to renewable energy and adopt sustainable practices."

[Rolebama]

I don't know where you got the axis and tilt data, but I contest it. The axis tilt changes by 10minutes per year. That's 102 years from one extreme to another. The 70/80 yrs I quoted above would be what we would 'notice', for want of a better word because of our non-fixed orbit.
As to pollution, a very large bore was made in Siberia some years ago. Research of the extracted item showed pollution levels way above what they are now. Some caused by volcanic activity, some by wildfires, and some by meteorites. The planet has been covered by saltwater, tropical rain forest, desert and partially covered in ice, all because of fluctuating axis tilt and orbit. It is only in relatively recent time that these are lessening.

[NMNeil]

Originally Posted by Drivingforfun

You might be right
Didn’t you have biblical rain not too long ago…?

We did and the aftermath is causing chaos, but not in the way you may think.
Chaves County describes itself as the dairy capital of the south and we are surrounded by factory farms of which 4 of the biggest are about a mile or so from my house.
Under Federal law they all need NPDES permits
https://www.epa.gov/npdes
Problem is you can't get a NPDES permit if you are on a flood plain, and after the floods our area has now be designated as a flood plain.
So we have all the factory farms desperately trying to have that designation removed or they will have to close and relocate, coupled with that the milk they produce is now having to be tested for the bird flu, and with Holman chomping at the bit the illegals that were working at the factory farms are leaving.

"May you live in interesting times"

Old Chinese curse

[Drivingforfun]

I'd never assume policymakers make changes out of stupidity because society is so complex and the chain reactions sometimes can't be predicted ... but how come it takes so long to reverse a change once it becomes apparent that it's doing harm??

I can't see how it takes much longer than a phone call

Assuming changes aren't made simply in the interest of whoever made the change..which maybe is naive of me

[olduser]

I think it is a human trait, the higher up the system we get the harder it is to so oops... I got it wrong.
Look how much fuss is generated in the media if a government try's to change it's mind.

As factory manager, I was taught when making changes to plan three things.
1. The change
2. A specific date to check to see if the change had done what was intended.
3. How do we get back to where we were, should the change not have the wanted effect.
But above all, understand the problem before you start.

The most common comment from other managers, was you can't do that because you are admitting you got it wrong.

Their preferred route is to apply a sticking plaster to the change (change the change) in the hope that will correct the mistakes but never admit it was wrong.

An example of this is the NHS, reform after reform after...

[olduser]

Originally Posted by Rolebama

I don't know where you got the axis and tilt data, but I contest it. The axis tilt changes by 10minutes per year. That's 102 years from one extreme to another. The 70/80 yrs I quoted above would be what we would 'notice', for want of a better word because of our non-fixed orbit.
As to pollution, a very large bore was made in Siberia some years ago. Research of the extracted item showed pollution levels way above what they are now. Some caused by volcanic activity, some by wildfires, and some by meteorites. The planet has been covered by saltwater, tropical rain forest, desert and partially covered in ice, all because of fluctuating axis tilt and orbit. It is only in relatively recent time that these are lessening.

I got that from Geological Engineer's, their opinion was the wobble you are referring to gives small variation's in seasons year to year, and if nothing else was going on would repeat every 102 years.
It is this effect that gives rise to statements like, we don't have summers like we used to or we used to have snow every Christmas.
People are born and live through different parts of the 102 year cycle.

As I understand it, the long term and shorter term variations have been incorporated into the models that are being used to predict global warming.
With the man made effects included into the models, so far, year by year the predictions have been very close to what is happening.

We can wait until it is too late or we can try to correct the problem.
In trying to correct the problem we will learn to live more efficiently, I see it as a no brainer.

[olduser]

Sorry I was interrupted in my last post by a fire alarm, it turned out to be practice run.

I just wanted to say, there are two majority opinions, from what I have read I fall into the 'exacerbated by man' camp but when I hear a new argument against, I do try to check it's validity.
Not prove someone wrong or right but more like fitting a new piece into the jigsaw.

[NMNeil]

And yesterday I woke to about a foot of snow, meaning I had to climb on the roof to brush the snow off my solar panels.
29C to -2C in a week or so.

Crazy.

[Rolebama]

I have been in three places I can think of when the weather has changed from a beautiful summer's day into a snow blizzard in an hour or so. Seaford in East Sussex in the early 70s, Luneberg Heath in Germany in 1969, and countless times on Snowdon between 1967 and 1969. The Mountain Rescue Team for Snowdon asked us on a number of occasions to assist in finding lost people on Snowdon and within Snowdonia. I have come down from Snowdon with a small child or baby tucked in my jacket a few times during that time.

[NMNeil]

Touch breezy here.